Response to: “Applying Global Trends: A Look At China’s Auto Industry” in McKinsey Quarterly

McKinsey Quarterly accepted the following Steven Weiss comment to this article:

Assumption-based planning would also be an important tool in monitoring the progress of each scenario. It would provide an additional discipline to think through the problem and the remedies.

Furthermore, what Mr. Weiss couldn’t include in the comment are the following observations:

By only consulting McKinsey’s own auto experts and hoping there would be creative and imaginative thinking, the article’s discussion felt self-contained. There should have been a greater diversity of expertise and opinion such as input from auto designers, entrepreneurs, etc.

Looking at the Chinese auto market in isolation is a fool’s errand. It is imperative to develop scenarios for the Japanese, United States, South Korean auto markets.

In Japan there will be technological advancements in green technologies, fuel efficiencies and safety. They have no other choice. The cars will enjoy a 45% cost advantage.

China’s perfect storm scenario is the most likely given their resources, government stimulus and disruptive strategies. They will always have problems regarding the perception of their brands and the consumer take away. Buying Volvo was a mistake; the dealer network is in a shambles, Volvo has a brand deficit and they do not use leading edge technologies.

The auto market in the United States will invest heavily in batteries technology.  Ford, General Motors will increase share of market.  The government will invest heavily in new technologies.

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1 Response to "Response to: “Applying Global Trends: A Look At China’s Auto Industry” in McKinsey Quarterly"

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